Warren Holds Strong Lead Among TC Seniors
Nikki Harris and Rachel Wilson
With the Iowa caucus fast approaching, many students must decide which candidates to support. A new poll conducted by Theogony from December 13 to January 7 found Senator Elizabeth Warren (D-Mass.) leads the field of Democratic presidential candidates at 16 percent.
The poll was taken by 170 seniors who will be able to vote in the Virginia primary election on March 3 and has a margin of error of 5.1 percent. The respondents were 54 percent white, 22 percent Latinx, 16 percent African American, and 8 percent Asian American or Native American.
Warren was trailed by former Vice President Joe Biden at 11 percent, Senator Bernie Sanders (I-Vt.) at 9 percent, Andrew Yang at 8 percent and former Mayor Pete Buttigieg at 8 percent. Every other candidate fell in the low single digits.
Warren’s lead challenges that Sanders is the only candidate who can compel a base of young voters with typically low turnout. “The people who support [Warren] are highly educated, more affluent people who are going to show up and vote Democratic no matter what,” a canvassing script–obtained by POLITICO–from Sanders’s campaign said.
Sanders’ support from voters under 30 in the 2016 primary election was 25 percent greater than Trump’s and Clinton’s combined, according to The Washington Post. Sanders is now competing for the progressive vote with Warren, who has framed herself as a uniter of the progressive and moderate factions of the Democratic party.
Buttigieg fell in second place among white voters at 13 percent, while being at 3 percent with Latinx voters and 0 percent with African American and Asian American voters. These numbers mark his struggle to connect with voters of color, a key voting bloc of the Democratic electorate.
Sanders closely led African American voters at 17 percent, with Warren and Biden following at 14 percent. Biden holds a formidable lead among older African American voters in South Carolina, the fourth state to vote in the country, but Sanders and Warren have higher support among young African American voters.
47 percent of respondents are only somewhat certain they will vote for their candidate of choice, a sign of what is shaping to be a volatile race.
57 percent of respondents plan to vote in the primary, while 23 percent do not and 20 percent might. These numbers compare a 50 percent turnout in the 2016 general election, according to Tufts University.
5.1 percent of respondents intend to vote for President Trump in the general election.
39 percent of African American respondents said they were not voting in the upcoming election. This closely matches the 2016 general election, which had 60 percent African American turnout, according to a Pew Research Center poll in 2017.
The first four states to vote–Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada and South Carolina–narrow the field and determine the fate of the race before more populous states, including Virginia, vote.
